Brazil: Hope for the future?

 In a country shaken by unrest, is there any hope for divisions to heal, for poverty to reduce and the Amazon to recover?

Brazil's great natural wonder- can it come back from the brink?

30th October, 2022. Brazilians went to the polls in the second and final round of what had been a divisive and at times, violent election campaign that drew international attention. Religion had been a running theme through the election in this evangelical christian country- Bolsonaro had pitched himself as God's candidate. The day of the election saw massive disruption, former president and prisoner Lula accusing the authorities of closing roads so buses full of voters wouldn't be able to vote. Bolsonaro had spent the run-up claiming that the electoral system was fraudulent, and then the day before seemed to go back on that, saying whoever won would be the fair winner. It was all rather confusing. 

And then, the results started coming in. First one way, then another. And then, the final results came in, Lula pipping Bolsonaro by 50.9% to 49.1%. Some celebrated, some partied, and some rioted in protest. Roadblocks were set up by Bolsonaro-supporting truck drivers and scuffles with the police broke out. 
All while this was happening, Jair Bolsonaro had disappeared slowly into the shadows, out of the public eye. He never accepted defeat, but neither did he block the way for Lula's formal inauguration on New Year's Day 2023, however he became the first president in history not to turn up to it. To his credit, he did tell his fired-up supporters that blocking roads and scuffling were not part of legitimate protests. 

And then, the big day. January 8th 2023. 4000 or so Bolsonaro supporters flocked over the weekend to Brasilia, and stormed the congress, the supreme court and the presidential palace, vandalising, smashing up windows and furniture, art and turning the buildings into a wreck. The authorities response was slow and it took hours and hours to get everything under control. The country was shaken. Shocked. Bolsonaro made a point a few hours later on social media of distancing himself from the protests, condemning the attack and calling the scenes 'unbelievable' and 'regrettable', saying that storming public buildings was not something he endorsed. 

But the divisions haven't healed. If anything, they've grown. So is there any hope for Brazil to move forward?

Lula, the new president, has a long and controversial past in Brazilian politics, and is a familiar face. He came into politics from a working-class background as a trade unionist and metalworker, and in the 1980's forming the Workers's Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores), coinciding with the liberalisation of Brazil under the military rule and its eventual collapse. His party worked it's way up the opinion polls and eventually won the vote in 2002, during a time that was known as the 'pink tide' - a series of left-wing parties that came into government across Latin America. His period in power, which lasted for seven years spread across two terms, was marked by a massive reduction in poverty, a growth of GDP and a lowering of inflation and public debt, helped by social programs he set up- Bolsa Familia and Fome Zero, which had a goal of eradicating all poverty and hunger in Brazil. Access to education also increased significantly, as did access to healthcare. 

After he left office in 2010, he still remained active in politics, and then, the drama unfolded. Lula was investigated as part of an anti-corruption investigation known as Operation Car Wash (Lava Jato), and was convicted and put in prison just months before the 2018 election, at which point he still led Bolsonaro in the polls by a big margin, which led many to believe that his arrest was engineered to ensure that Bolsonaro won. The accusations of bias grew even louder when the judge who arrested Lula became a high-ranking minister in the Bolsonaro administration. The corruption allegations centered around accepting bribes (including an apartment) and two cases of money-laundering that involved one of Brazil's biggest oil companies, Petrobas. It's complicated, isn't it? The truth is that, in all likelihood, we'll never know what actually happened, and wether these charges are legitimate or not. 

Jair Bolsonaro himself got elected in 2018, during a time when many Brazilians saw a state that was failing to take care of their security. He got into office with the 'God, Family, Fatherland, Freedom' message- eerily similar to something else, right? During his time in office, he oversaw a huge shrinking in the size of the state and a huge increase in the private sector. He also loosened gun restrictions, which was one of his key priorities. Crime rates did drop slightly, but one of the key points of his time was of course his handling of the COVID pandemic, claiming that the nations economic recovery was more important and that the virus was no different to a common flu. He said that the situation had been overplayed and talked up the idea that 'Brazilians never catch anything'. But probably the biggest issue with his tenure was the continued degradation of the Amazon rainforest- He treated the Amazon as a resource rather then a forest of life, and after several years in which deforestation rates lowered, they started rising again after he got elected. Devastating forest fires ravaged the Amazon, but they were hushed up until a very late stage and international aid was rejected. These fires are not natural to the Amazon rainforest, and occur because deforested areas, where trees have been felled is made into farmland, pasture and human habitation where these fires start. He created an environment where illegal land-grabbing could thrive, often taking away land from indigenous tribes, and allowing loggers and gold miners to enter protected natural areas. There was a lack of funds for environmental protection services, and the Amazon fund, which was coming from international donors to help protect the rainforest, was shelved partly because Bolsonaro said the money wasn't needed anymore, and other countries had concerns that the money wasn't actually going to the rainforest. All of this, along with the global climate crisis means that the Amazon is now at a tipping point, where if it degrades much more the damage will be irreversible and we won't be able to recover it.

Deforested area of Amazon rainforest in Brazil (in square kilometres), Source: INPE

One of the other huge issues facing the country is poverty, with around 25-30% of the population living under the poverty line, and 10% living in extreme poverty. The poverty situation was exacerbated by the pandemic, with especially those in favelas (Brazilian slums) finding it harder to cope, because of the lack of infrastructure like safe drinking water and medical facilities. It is also one of the most unequal countries in the world, not helped by a capitalism model that Bolsonaro encouraged which ended up making the rich richer. Here's a crazy statistic: The 6 richest people in Brazil have the same wealth as the poorest 50% of the population, which is 100 million. And the consequences of this inequality aren't good- namely conflict, violence and instability. People look for any way to earn money- Brazil has a huge market of unregistered/illegal employment. So one of Lula's first priorities should be fixing this crisis- it doesn't just benefit the poor, it will benefit everyone because a reduction in poverty will result, almost certainly in a safer Brazil. The best thing to come out of Lula's 2003-2010 reign was probably the significant reduction in poverty back then, so it's not as if it's a new problem. And it is getting better. It just needs to get better faster.

And now, the Amazon rainforest. It's teetering on the brink of a dangerous tipping point, and if deforestation rates continue at the rate they're going at, it won't be long before the Amazon will turn into a savannah, and we won't be able to do anything about it. This will release a huge, huge amount of heat trapping gases including CO2, accelerating the climate crisis even further, and we'll be closer to an endless chain of global warming and biodiversity loss that we can't get out of. This would be devastating for everyone- the world that relies on the role of the Amazon as a carbon capturer, the species that live in it- it is one of the most biodiverse places in the world, and the indigenous locals who live there, who will see their home, which is already getting destroyed by illegal mining, logging etc. turn into a bare, scorching savannah. Luckily, there's hope- especially as we've avoided the nightmare scenario of another for years of a Bolsonaro who promised to double down on his environmental policies- barely any to do with protection, very many to do with exploitation. 

Right now, the CO2 emitted from deforestation means that the Amazon emits more carbon each year than it absorbs. What's needed, scientists say is for a drastic change in the way the Amazon is used, as well as a reduction and elimination of deforestation- which is mostly for livestock space and soy plantations. Lula has, despite his imperfect environmental record, promised the protection and revival of the rainforest as a priority. It's not too late to save the Amazon, but quick and decisive action is needed to curb deforestation, illegal mining and logging, protect indigenous lands and integrate the locals into the solution- they are the ones who know the rainforest best- and help the fight against global climate change. 

Although Brazil isn't in a great place politically, socially, or environmentally right now, their problems aren't terminal, and small scale solutions are already there. There are people fighting on all of these fronts, but having a government, with its' power and investment backing that up and pushing on will be key to uniting a fractured country, eliminating poverty and saving the Amazon rainforest.